This weekend's Crimea vote isn't "it"
Week beginning March 17, 2014
According to the headlines this week, the direction of major Western stock markets now depends on how Crimea votes this weekend.
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014
The current resident of 1600 Pennsylvania will make noises about democracy and the right of all the people of Ukraine to have a voice ... something he is never likely to grant to all the population of Cuba about the fate of the eastern end of that island.
The current resident of 10 Downing will repeat the script ... ignoring his country's long refusal to allow a free vote of all residents of that large island to the left about what happens with its northern provinces.
Anyway, this week won't see the main game. Those of you who have Forecast 2014 might want to have another look at the graphic on Page 6. As I said there: "And the danger of military conflicts expands as diplomatic solutions fail."
The graphic shows two timeframes "when the issues are likely to become unavoidably obvious". The first was the February/March changeover ... and the next is still several weeks away.
The current resident of 10 Downing will repeat the script ... ignoring his country's long refusal to allow a free vote of all residents of that large island to the left about what happens with its northern provinces.
Anyway, this week won't see the main game. Those of you who have Forecast 2014 might want to have another look at the graphic on Page 6. As I said there: "And the danger of military conflicts expands as diplomatic solutions fail."
The graphic shows two timeframes "when the issues are likely to become unavoidably obvious". The first was the February/March changeover ... and the next is still several weeks away.
In truth, the market direction really depends on the Western political reaction to an outcome which is a foregone conclusion.
The reaction is eminently predictable, as well. Forked tongues will speak incessantly and loudly.
The reaction is eminently predictable, as well. Forked tongues will speak incessantly and loudly.
Safe trading - RA
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
In the meantime, we need to concern ourselves with the charts. I think we'll chat a little more this weekend about the Bi-BBs, since once again they've proven to be very useful in giving us a warning about where markets were headed.
Last weekend, we looked at those charts and their implications for a fast move in gold ... and a stall or correction starting on Wall Street.
Firstly, to the weekly Bi-BB chart for Pollyanna, the SP500. We had discussed how the Bollinger Bands were beginning to tighten, which almost invariably precedes a fast move, and how a breaking of the outer bands almost always stalls a trend or provokes a change in trend direction.
I circled previous examples of an upper band break and pointed out how even the little ones caused a reaction ... and right on cue, it happened again.
Last weekend, we looked at those charts and their implications for a fast move in gold ... and a stall or correction starting on Wall Street.
Firstly, to the weekly Bi-BB chart for Pollyanna, the SP500. We had discussed how the Bollinger Bands were beginning to tighten, which almost invariably precedes a fast move, and how a breaking of the outer bands almost always stalls a trend or provokes a change in trend direction.
I circled previous examples of an upper band break and pointed out how even the little ones caused a reaction ... and right on cue, it happened again.
So far, price has retreated from one weekly Saturn cluster down to another. Big Bird, the 50CCI, has dived rather deeply. This is a fairly strong indication we could now be in an intermediate decline and will probably need a divergence reading in the oscillator before a new rally can be sustained.
NEW:
Forecast 2014 is now available for sale and download.
Click the button on the right for more details.
Click the button on the right for more details.
The next chart shows only the primary planetary lines currently having an impact on the 500. We had a false break of the long-range Pluto line priced at 1876, confirming that it is a very strong resistance level for the index. Given the unhappy state of the Big Bird, it's likely the index will need to drop to one of the lower primary price levels shown below.
For my home market readers, I'll show the ASX 200's state-of-play within its daily All Planets chart. For the second time in recent weeks, the Saturn barrier now at 5467 proved too difficult to overcome and Auntie went on another dive down to the Saturn at 5330.
What is different this time is that that two of our Canaries - Big Bird (yellow) and Medium Bird (red) - have fallen off their perch. Fast Bird, the green oscillator, is suggesting the potential for a little bounce, but we probably need to see a clear instance of positive divergence forming in the red line before this correction shows firm signs of being finished.
What is different this time is that that two of our Canaries - Big Bird (yellow) and Medium Bird (red) - have fallen off their perch. Fast Bird, the green oscillator, is suggesting the potential for a little bounce, but we probably need to see a clear instance of positive divergence forming in the red line before this correction shows firm signs of being finished.
Now let's turn our attention to gold. Last weekend we discussed how price was trying to set itself for a stronger run to the 1363 Pluto level and how the daily Bi-BB chart showed "we're probably about to see a fast move".
And we all know what happened ... the fast move just blew past Pluto.
And we all know what happened ... the fast move just blew past Pluto.
I've been promising a special report on gold and have been waiting to see the structure of this rally. I will now put that report together and email it out late in the week, or next weekend.
If it's the latter, there probably won't be an Eye of Ra next weekend.
If it's the latter, there probably won't be an Eye of Ra next weekend.
